What is at stake in Taiwan's elections?

Outside of Taiwan, poll results could affect relations between the U.S. and China as well.

On Jan 14, people in Taiwan will head to the polls to elect a president. The politically heated race has pitted incumbent Ma Ying jeou, who has been strengthening economic ties with China, against opposition candidate Tsai Ing-wen, who is hoping to move the island nation towards less dependence on the communist nation.

China and the United States have been watching the events closely. The United States sells defensive weapons to Taiwan, as mandated by a 1979 congressional act that established bilateral relations, and China considers Taiwan a breakaway province.

In this episode, The Stream speaks with Russell Hsiao, a senior research fellow at the Project 2049 Institute; Michael Fonte, a liaison for Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party; and Ketty Chen, a professor at National Taiwan University.

What do you think? How will the election results affect relations between Taiwan, the U.S., and China? Send us your thoughts and comments on Facebook or Twitter using hashtag #AJStream.

These are some of the photos and videos featured in this episode of The Stream:

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What's at stake in Taiwan’s elections?

Outside of Taiwan, poll results could affect relations between the U.S. and China as well.

President Ma Ying-jeou came to power in 2008, after defeating the opposition candidate from the Democratic Progressive Party with promises of a Golden Decade of development. He has spent most of his term improving commercial ties between Taiwan and China.

Tsai Ing-Wen is the new chair of the Democratic Progressive Party. She has criticized Ma's economic policy, saying he has pushed Taiwan's domestic issues aside in favor of getting closer to China.

Both candidates have shied away from directly addressing the complicated question of Taiwan's political status, preferring to stay within economic terms. Ma has maintained the political status quo of de facto independence, repeatedly stressing his three-point China policy: no independence, no unification, and no war.

Tsai claims that the status quo was agreed between Chinese and Taiwanese leadership before Taiwan became a democracy and must be updated democratically to reflect majority Taiwanese opinion.

Taiwan's trade with China has exploded in the last decade, though it has slowed in the wake of the global recession. Ma signed a landmark commercial agreement with China intended to reduce trade barriers. Ma championed the agreement in hopes of using it as a framework for deals with neighboring Asian countries currently wary of signing independent deals with Taiwan because of Chinese pressure.

Tsai has criticised the trade agreement, contending that it has resulted in Taiwanese industrial jobs moving to China and harmed economic recovery. Critics of Ma argue that his cross-strait policy will lead to economic dependency on the mainland, intended by the Chinese to gradually absorb Taiwan into unification.

The elections have intensified in nature as they approach the finish line, with Tsai accusing the Nationalist Party of using state security to track her movements, while President Ma has attempted to tar her with corruption that her party has been known for in the past.

China has expressed a clear preference for Ma. A spokesman for its Taiwan Affairs Office said a Tsai victory could “inevitably threaten the peaceful development of cross-strait ties.”

The US, eager to minimize the Taiwan issue in its relationship with China, has also expressed doubts about Tsai. Although the administration is maintaining an officially neutral stance, a senior official said Tsai's visit to Washington in October “left us with distinct doubts about whether she is both willing and able to continue the stability in cross-Strait relations.”

The US most recently sold Taiwan a $5.8 billion package of upgrades to its F-16 fighter jets, following a similar $6.4 billion deal in 2010 that prompted China to suspend military relations for over a year.

Full infographic can be found <a target="_blank" href="http://visually.visually.netdna-cdn.com/ChinasMilitary_4ed6b7c1327a5.jpg">here</a>.

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What is at stake in Taiwan's elections?

What is at stake in Taiwan's elections?

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